NCAAFSat 2:45 PM CTNippert Stadium

#6 Utah Utes at Cincinnati Bearcats

TV · ESPN

Sat 2:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UTAH -6.5

52%

At lock UTAH 32.40–25.16 CIN · UTAH by 7.2 pts vs UTAH -6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Dampier · UTAH
QB
W. Parker · UTAH
RB
B. Pegan · UTAH
WR
J. French IV · CIN
QB
C. Tabb · CIN
RB
J. Gibson · CIN
WR

#6Utah Utes

7-0 · W7 · computer pick

262 PF · 102 PA

32.40

Projected

Cincinnati Bearcats

5-2 · W1

248 PF · 185 PA

25.16

UTAH 67%CIN 33%

At lock: projected UTAH 32.40–25.16 CIN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UTAH -7.9

UTAH -6.5

Total

57.6

57.5

Gap: -1.4 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UTAH vs CIN

The model

How this number was built

UTAH 32.40–25.16 CIN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CIN +6.5 vs UTAH +17.0 · pred margin -7.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.7 vs +13.4 · model CIN 24.5–33.2 UTAH
Home field
+3.0 pts to CIN
Record
CIN 5-2 · UTAH 7-0
Market prior
Blended 67% toward UTAH -6.5 / total 57.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Devon Dampier
Pass 136/198, 1616 YDS, 15 TD, 6 INT
Wayshawn Parker
Rush 102 CAR, 644 YDS, 8 TD
Braden Pegan
Rec 34 REC, 459 YDS, 6 TD

JC French IV
Pass 127/183, 1510 YDS, 13 TD, 2 INT
Cole Tabb
Rush 65 CAR, 621 YDS, 9 TD
JV Gibson
Rec 29 REC, 385 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UTAH	CIN
Points Per Game	37.4	35.4
Total Yards	478.4	455.3
Yards Passing	257.4	220.7
Yards Rushing	221.0	234.6
Points Allowed Per Game	14.6	26.4
Yards Allowed	312.4	429.4
Pass Yards Allowed	224.1	284.4
Rush Yards Allowed	88.3	145.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Utah vs Cincinnati prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UTAH -6.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Utah 32.4, Cincinnati 25.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Cincinnati 33%, Utah 67%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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