NCAAFSat 6:00 PM CTJack Trice Stadium

#24 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones

TV · FS1

Sat 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ISU +10

56%

At lock OKST 32.20–24.61 ISU · OKST by 7.6 pts vs ISU +10 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Mestemaker · OKST
QB
C. Hawkins · OKST
RB
W. Young · OKST
WR
J. Raynor · ISU
QB
A. Flora · ISU
RB
O. Hayes · ISU
WR

#24Oklahoma State Cowboys

5-2 · W1

280 PF · 166 PA

32.20

Projected

Iowa State Cyclones

3-4 · L2 · computer pick

181 PF · 169 PA

24.61

OKST 69%ISU 31%

At lock: projected OKST 32.20–24.61 ISU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

OKST -3.8

OKST -10.0

Total

56.4

57.5

Gap: +6.2 margin, -1.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: OKST vs ISU

The model

How this number was built

OKST 32.20–24.61 ISU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ISU +1.5 vs OKST +11.2 · pred margin -7.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.2 vs +3.6 · model ISU 28.3–25.6 OKST
Home field
+3.0 pts to ISU
Record
ISU 3-4 · OKST 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward OKST -10 / total 57.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Drew Mestemaker
Pass 157/239, 2326 YDS, 20 TD, 6 INT
Caleb Hawkins
Rush 142 CAR, 712 YDS, 2 TD
Wyatt Young
Rec 36 REC, 639 YDS, 6 TD

Jaylen Raynor
Pass 93/158, 1107 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
Aiden Flora
Rush 102 CAR, 716 YDS, 6 TD
Omari Hayes
Rec 19 REC, 237 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	OKST	ISU
Points Per Game	40.0	25.9
Total Yards	529.1	339.9
Yards Passing	341.0	176.9
Yards Rushing	188.1	163.0
Points Allowed Per Game	23.7	24.1
Yards Allowed	364.0	370.1
Pass Yards Allowed	226.4	218.1
Rush Yards Allowed	137.6	152.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Oklahoma St vs Iowa State prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ISU +10, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Oklahoma St 32.2, Iowa State 24.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Iowa State 31%, Oklahoma St 69%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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