NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTLaVell Edwards Stadium

Arizona State Sun Devils at #8 BYU Cougars

TV · Fox

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 49.5

53%

At lock ASU 17.76–33.01 BYU · 1.3 pts over 49.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Boley · ASU
QB
C. Mack · ASU
RB
R. Harris · ASU
WR
B. Bachmeier · BYU
QB
L. Martin · BYU
RB
L. Glasker · BYU
WR

Arizona State Sun Devils

4-3 · W1

216 PF · 209 PA

17.76

Projected

#8BYU Cougars

6-1 · L1

232 PF · 130 PA

33.01

ASU 16%BYU 84%

At lock: projected ASU 17.76–33.01 BYU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BYU -17.4

BYU -15.5

Total

50.7

49.5

Gap: +1.9 margin, +1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ASU vs BYU

The model

How this number was built

ASU 17.76–33.01 BYU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BYU +16.3 vs ASU +0.6 · pred margin +16.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.8 vs +2.4 · model BYU 34.0–19.3 ASU
Home field
+3.0 pts to BYU
Record
BYU 6-1 · ASU 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward BYU -15.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cutter Boley
Pass 105/173, 1360 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT
Cardae Mack
Rush 55 CAR, 400 YDS, 6 TD
Reed Harris
Rec 47 REC, 800 YDS, 8 TD

Bear Bachmeier
Pass 116/184, 1514 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT
LJ Martin
Rush 44 CAR, 344 YDS, 3 TD
Legend Glasker
Rec 28 REC, 498 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ASU	BYU
Points Per Game	30.9	33.1
Total Yards	411.6	414.3
Yards Passing	267.4	220.6
Yards Rushing	144.1	193.7
Points Allowed Per Game	29.9	18.6
Yards Allowed	359.6	301.6
Pass Yards Allowed	213.1	203.4
Rush Yards Allowed	146.4	98.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Arizona St vs BYU prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 49.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Arizona St 17.8, BYU 33.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: BYU 84%, Arizona St 16%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day