NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTGalaxy Stadium

#22 Arizona Wildcats at #13 Texas Tech Red Raiders

TV · ESPN

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TTU -3.5

52%

At lock ARIZ 25.06–29.26 TTU · TTU by 4.2 pts vs TTU -3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

N. Fifita · ARIZ
QB
K. Reescano · ARIZ
RB
I. Mizell · ARIZ
WR
W. Hammond · TTU
QB
J. Williams · TTU
RB
K. Johnson · TTU
WR

#22Arizona Wildcats

6-1 · W5

253 PF · 117 PA

25.06

Projected

#13Texas Tech Red Raiders

6-1 · L1 · computer pick

251 PF · 143 PA

29.26

ARIZ 39%TTU 61%

At lock: projected ARIZ 25.06–29.26 TTU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TTU -6.1

TTU -3.5

Total

54.3

54.5

Gap: +2.6 margin, -0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ARIZ vs TTU

The model

How this number was built

ARIZ 25.06–29.26 TTU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TTU +16.7 vs ARIZ +13.3 · pred margin +4.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +12.7 vs +11.2 · model TTU 29.8–24.2 ARIZ
Home field
+3.0 pts to TTU
Record
TTU 6-1 · ARIZ 6-1
Market prior
Blended 67% toward TTU -3.5 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Noah Fifita
Pass 167/225, 2064 YDS, 18 TD, 4 INT
Kedrick Reescano
Rush 80 CAR, 303 YDS, 5 TD
Isaiah Mizell
Rec 27 REC, 493 YDS, 5 TD

Will Hammond
Pass 139/205, 1561 YDS, 6 TD, 6 INT
J'Koby Williams
Rush 86 CAR, 619 YDS, 5 TD
Kenny Johnson
Rec 31 REC, 499 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ARIZ	TTU
Points Per Game	36.1	35.9
Total Yards	459.4	419.1
Yards Passing	310.9	229.4
Yards Rushing	148.6	189.7
Points Allowed Per Game	16.7	20.4
Yards Allowed	314.9	372.9
Pass Yards Allowed	207.7	266.1
Rush Yards Allowed	107.1	106.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Arizona vs Texas Tech prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TTU -3.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Arizona 25.1, Texas Tech 29.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Texas Tech 61%, Arizona 39%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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