NCAAFSat 6:30 PM CTDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Mississippi State Bulldogs at #11 Texas Longhorns

TV · ESPN

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

MSST +21

54%

At lock MSST 15.89–35.34 TEX · TEX by 19.5 pts vs MSST +21 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

K. Taylor · MSST
QB
F. Bothwell · MSST
RB
A. Evans III · MSST
WR
A. Manning · TEX
QB
R. Brown · TEX
RB
R. Wingo · TEX
WR

Mississippi State Bulldogs

4-3 · L3 · computer pick

210 PF · 194 PA

15.89

Projected

#11Texas Longhorns

5-2 · W1

215 PF · 134 PA

35.34

MSST 11%TEX 89%

At lock: projected MSST 15.89–35.34 TEX

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TEX -16.7

TEX -21.0

Total

51.7

50.5

Gap: -4.3 margin, +1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MSST vs TEX

The model

How this number was built

MSST 15.89–35.34 TEX · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TEX +24.0 vs MSST +8.5 · pred margin +19.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +8.4 vs +2.2 · model TEX 33.6–20.7 MSST
Home field
+3.0 pts to TEX
Record
TEX 5-2 · MSST 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward TEX -21 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kamario Taylor
Pass 104/159, 1460 YDS, 17 TD, 4 INT
Fluff Bothwell
Rush 91 CAR, 514 YDS, 3 TD
Anthony Evans III
Rec 53 REC, 647 YDS, 5 TD

Arch Manning
Pass 124/196, 1507 YDS, 12 TD, 7 INT
Raleek Brown
Rush 84 CAR, 422 YDS, 5 TD
Ryan Wingo
Rec 33 REC, 456 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MSST	TEX
Points Per Game	30.0	30.7
Total Yards	439.7	370.4
Yards Passing	264.7	224.3
Yards Rushing	175.0	146.1
Points Allowed Per Game	27.7	19.1
Yards Allowed	392.0	285.4
Pass Yards Allowed	267.4	178.1
Rush Yards Allowed	124.6	107.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Mississippi St vs Texas prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MSST +21, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Mississippi St 15.9, Texas 35.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Texas 89%, Mississippi St 11%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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