NCAAFSat 3:15 PM CTMemorial Stadium (Norman, OK)

South Carolina Gamecocks at Oklahoma Sooners

TV · SEC Network

Sat 3:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

SC +5.5

52%

At lock SC 20.09–24.85 OU · OU by 4.8 pts vs SC +5.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

L. Sellers · SC
QB
M. Fuller · SC
RB
M. Bennett Jr. · SC
WR
J. Mateer · OU
QB
L. Avant · OU
RB
I. Sategna III · OU
WR

South Carolina Gamecocks

4-3 · W2 · computer pick

253 PF · 177 PA

20.09

Projected

Oklahoma Sooners

4-3 · W1

151 PF · 124 PA

24.85

SC 38%OU 62%

At lock: projected SC 20.09–24.85 OU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

OU -4.3

OU -5.5

Total

44.9

44.5

Gap: -1.2 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SC vs OU

The model

How this number was built

SC 20.09–24.85 OU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
OU +14.1 vs SC +12.4 · pred margin +5.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.7 vs +5.7 · model OU 24.6–21.3 SC
Home field
+3.0 pts to OU
Record
OU 4-3 · SC 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward OU -5.5 / total 44.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

LaNorris Sellers
Pass 133/219, 1548 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT
Matt Fuller
Rush 90 CAR, 513 YDS, 5 TD
Mazeo Bennett Jr.
Rec 31 REC, 324 YDS, 3 TD

John Mateer
Pass 136/204, 1591 YDS, 11 TD, 7 INT
Lloyd Avant
Rush 73 CAR, 322 YDS, 2 TD
Isaiah Sategna III
Rec 41 REC, 578 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SC	OU
Points Per Game	36.1	21.6
Total Yards	456.0	333.7
Yards Passing	237.7	228.1
Yards Rushing	218.3	105.6
Points Allowed Per Game	25.3	17.7
Yards Allowed	337.9	273.7
Pass Yards Allowed	222.7	156.3
Rush Yards Allowed	115.1	117.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

South Carolina vs Oklahoma prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SC +5.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected South Carolina 20.1, Oklahoma 24.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Oklahoma 62%, South Carolina 38%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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