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Colorado Rapids at San Jose Earthquakes

TV · Apple TV

Wed 9:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

56%

At lock COL 1.24–1.69 SJ · 0.4 goals over 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

P. Aaronson · COL
Midfielder
P. Judd · SJ
Forward

Colorado Rapids

12-6-13

Form DDDDL · 42 PF · 41 PA

1.24

Projected

San Jose Earthquakes

13-9-9

Form DDDDW · 52 PF · 45 PA

1.69

COL 27%Draw 26%SJ 47%

At lock: projected COL 1.24–1.69 SJ · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SJ win

60%

58% (no-vig)

Total

2.93

2.5

Gap: +1 pts of win %, +0.43 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

COL 1.24–1.69 SJ · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SJ att -0.11 / def -0.17 · COL att -0.31 / def -0.04 · model SJ 1.7–1.2 COL
Home field
+0.3 goals to SJ
Record
SJ 13-9-9 · COL 12-6-13

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Paxten Aaronson
goals 7
Paxten Aaronson
goalsleaders 7

Preston Judd
goals 16
Preston Judd
goalsleaders 16

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	COL	SJ
Goal Difference	1	7
Total Goals	42	52
Assists	27	39
Goals Against	41	45

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Colorado vs San Jose prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Colorado 1.2, San Jose 1.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: San Jose 47%, Colorado 27%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day