MLSWed 9:30 PM CTLumen Field

Houston Dynamo FC at Seattle Sounders FC

TV · Apple TV

Wed 9:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

60%

At lock HOU 0.93–1.37 SEA · 0.2 goals under 2.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

Guilherme Augusto · HOU
Forward
C. Roldan · SEA
Midfielder

Houston Dynamo FC

13-9-9

Form DDDDL · 41 PF · 39 PA

0.93

Projected

Seattle Sounders FC

11-10-10

Form DDLWW · 41 PF · 39 PA

1.37

HOU 24%Draw 30%SEA 46%

At lock: projected HOU 0.93–1.37 SEA · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SEA win

61%

67% (no-vig)

Total

2.30

2.5

Gap: -6 pts of win %, -0.20 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

HOU 0.93–1.37 SEA · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SEA att -0.21 / def +0.09 · HOU att -0.34 / def +0.07 · model SEA 1.4–0.9 HOU
Home field
+0.3 goals to SEA
Record
SEA 11-10-10 · HOU 13-9-9

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Guilherme Augusto
goals 16
Guilherme Augusto
goalsleaders 16

Cristian Roldan
goals 5
Cristian Roldan
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HOU	SEA
Goal Difference	2	2
Total Goals	41	41
Assists	23	28
Goals Against	39	39

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Houston vs Seattle prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 60% model probability. The model projected Houston 0.9, Seattle 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Seattle 46%, Houston 24%, draw 30%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day