MLSWed 7:30 PM CTGEODIS Park

Philadelphia Union at Nashville SC

TV · Apple TV

Wed 7:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

63%

At lock PHI 1.20–1.89 NSH · 0.4 goals under 3.5 · 63% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

M. Iloski · PHI
Forward
S. Surridge · NSH
Forward

Philadelphia Union

13-7-11

Form DDWWW · 62 PF · 50 PA

1.20

Projected

Nashville SC

21-7-3

Form DDWWW · 66 PF · 23 PA

1.89

PHI 23%Draw 25%NSH 52%

At lock: projected PHI 1.20–1.89 NSH · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

NSH win

65%

66% (no-vig)

Total

3.09

3.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, -0.41 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

PHI 1.20–1.89 NSH · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NSH att +0.04 / def +0.28 · PHI att +0.11 / def -0.01 · model NSH 1.9–1.2 PHI
Home field
+0.3 goals to NSH
Record
NSH 21-7-3 · PHI 13-7-11

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Milan Iloski
goals 19
Milan Iloski
goalsleaders 19

Sam Surridge
goals 18
Sam Surridge
goalsleaders 18

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PHI	NSH
Goal Difference	12	43
Total Goals	62	66
Assists	45	43
Goals Against	50	23

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Philadelphia vs Nashville prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projected Philadelphia 1.2, Nashville 1.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Nashville 52%, Philadelphia 23%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day