Sporting Kansas City at Minnesota United FC
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At lock SKC 1.29–2.81 MIN · 0.6 goals over 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
André Luiz · SKC
ForwardK. Yeboah · MIN
Forward
At lock: projected SKC 1.29–2.81 MIN · most likely 1–2 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 1–3
Model vs market
Gap: -4 pts of win %, +0.60 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
SKC 1.29–2.81 MIN · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MIN att -0.09 / def -0.18 · SKC att -0.28 / def -0.53 · model MIN 2.8–1.3 SKC
- Home field+0.3 goals to MIN
- RecordMIN 8-11-12 · SKC 6-4-21
Season leaders
- André Luizgoals 7
- André Luizgoalsleaders 7
- Kelvin Yeboahgoals 17
- Kelvin Yeboahgoalsleaders 17
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SKC | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -40 | -8 |
| Total Goals | 37 | 47 |
| Assists | 27 | 35 |
| Goals Against | 77 | 55 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Kansas City vs Minnesota prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 59% model probability. The model projected Kansas City 1.3, Minnesota 2.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Minnesota 67%, Kansas City 16%, draw 17%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day