Columbus Crew at FC Dallas
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At lock CLB 1.46–1.97 DAL · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
T. Habroune · CLB
MidfielderP. Musa · DAL
Forward
At lock: projected CLB 1.46–1.97 DAL · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: -2 pts of win %, -0.07 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
CLB 1.46–1.97 DAL · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): DAL att +0.01 / def -0.07 · CLB att -0.05 / def -0.08 · model DAL 2.0–1.5 CLB
- Home field+0.3 goals to DAL
- RecordDAL 15-9-7 · CLB 11-5-15
Season leaders
- Taha Habrounegoals 5
- Taha Habrounegoalsleaders 5
- Petar Musagoals 22
- Petar Musagoalsleaders 22
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLB | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 1 | 11 |
| Total Goals | 50 | 58 |
| Assists | 31 | 41 |
| Goals Against | 49 | 47 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Columbus vs Dallas prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Columbus 1.5, Dallas 2.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Dallas 48%, Columbus 28%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day