MLSWed 7:30 PM CTSoldier Field

Orlando City SC at Chicago Fire FC

TV · Apple TV

Wed 7:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

63%

At lock ORL 1.83–2.54 CHI · 0.9 goals over 3.5 · 63% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

M. Ojeda · ORL
Midfielder
M. Haile-Selassie · CHI
Midfielder

Orlando City SC

12-6-13

Form DWDWL · 60 PF · 72 PA

1.83

Projected

Chicago Fire FC

15-6-10

Form DLLWW · 55 PF · 46 PA

2.54

ORL 28%Draw 20%CHI 52%

At lock: projected ORL 1.83–2.54 CHI · most likely 1–2 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 2–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CHI win

63%

73% (no-vig)

Total

4.37

3.5

Gap: -10 pts of win %, +0.87 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

ORL 1.83–2.54 CHI · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CHI att -0.01 / def -0.13 · ORL att +0.12 / def -0.34 · model CHI 2.5–1.8 ORL
Home field
+0.3 goals to CHI
Record
CHI 15-6-10 · ORL 12-6-13

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Martín Ojeda
goals 16
Martín Ojeda
goalsleaders 16

Maren Haile-Selassie
goals 11
Maren Haile-Selassie
goalsleaders 11

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ORL	CHI
Goal Difference	-12	9
Total Goals	60	55
Assists	44	32
Goals Against	72	46

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Orlando vs Chicago prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projected Orlando 1.8, Chicago 2.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Chicago 52%, Orlando 28%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day