MLSWed 7:30 PM CTQ2 Stadium

Real Salt Lake at Austin FC

TV · Apple TV

Wed 7:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

53%

At lock RSL 1.41–1.40 ATX · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

S. Solans · RSL
Forward
C. Ramírez · ATX
Forward

Real Salt Lake

11-6-14

Form DWDLW · 48 PF · 48 PA

1.41

Projected

Austin FC

8-10-13

Form DLLLD · 40 PF · 57 PA

1.40

RSL 36%Draw 28%ATX 36%

At lock: projected RSL 1.41–1.40 ATX · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ATX win

50%

47% (no-vig)

Total

2.81

2.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.31 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

RSL 1.41–1.40 ATX · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATX att -0.32 / def -0.19 · RSL att -0.20 / def -0.07 · model ATX 1.4–1.4 RSL
Home field
+0.3 goals to ATX
Record
ATX 8-10-13 · RSL 11-6-14

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Sergi Solans
goals 14
Sergi Solans
goalsleaders 14

Christian Ramírez
goals 9
Christian Ramírez
goalsleaders 9

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RSL	ATX
Goal Difference	0	-17
Total Goals	48	40
Assists	39	27
Goals Against	48	57

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Salt Lake vs Austin prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Salt Lake 1.4, Austin 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Austin 36%, Salt Lake 36%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day