MLSWed 6:30 PM CTGillette Stadium

Red Bull New York at New England Revolution

TV · Apple TV

Wed 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

67%

At lock RBNY 1.14–1.74 NE · 0.6 goals under 3.5 · 67% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Hall · RBNY
Forward
C. Gil · NE
Midfielder

Red Bull New York

11-6-14

Form DLLWL · 41 PF · 56 PA

1.14

Projected

New England Revolution

17-4-10

Form DWWLL · 51 PF · 42 PA

1.74

RBNY 24%Draw 26%NE 50%

At lock: projected RBNY 1.14–1.74 NE · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

NE win

63%

62% (no-vig)

Total

2.88

3.5

Gap: +1 pts of win %, -0.62 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

RBNY 1.14–1.74 NE · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NE att -0.16 / def -0.08 · RBNY att -0.29 / def -0.12 · model NE 1.7–1.1 RBNY
Home field
+0.3 goals to NE
Record
NE 17-4-10 · RBNY 11-6-14

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Julian Hall
goals 11
Julian Hall
goalsleaders 11

Carles Gil
goals 13
Carles Gil
goalsleaders 13

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RBNY	NE
Goal Difference	-15	9
Total Goals	41	51
Assists	30	38
Goals Against	56	42

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Red Bull NY vs New England prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 67% model probability. The model projected Red Bull NY 1.1, New England 1.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: New England 50%, Red Bull NY 24%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day