FC Cincinnati at Inter Miami CF
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At lock CIN 1.71–3.34 MIA · 1.5 goals over 3.5 · 74% is the confidence saved at lock
K. Denkey · CIN
ForwardL. Messi · MIA
Forward
At lock: projected CIN 1.71–3.34 MIA · most likely 1–3
Model vs market
Gap: +1 pts of win %, +1.55 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
CIN 1.71–3.34 MIA · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MIA att +0.29 / def -0.16 · CIN att +0.02 / def -0.33 · model MIA 3.3–1.7 CIN
- Home field+0.3 goals to MIA
- RecordMIA 15-10-6 · CIN 11-9-11
Season leaders
- Kévin Denkeygoals 17
- Kévin Denkeygoalsleaders 17
Lionel Messigoals 25- Lionel Messigoalsleaders 25
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CIN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -7 | 20 |
| Total Goals | 64 | 73 |
| Assists | 47 | 50 |
| Goals Against | 71 | 53 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cincinnati vs Miami prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 74% model probability. The model projected Cincinnati 1.7, Miami 3.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Miami 66%, Cincinnati 19%, draw 16%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day