MLSWed 6:30 PM CTBank of America Stadium

CF Montréal at Charlotte FC

TV · Apple TV

Wed 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

59%

At lock MTL 0.98–2.29 CLT · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

P. Owusu · MTL
Forward
I. Toklomati · CLT
Forward

CF Montréal

6-7-18

Form DDLLW · 36 PF · 62 PA

0.98

Projected

Charlotte FC

13-8-10

Form DDLWL · 55 PF · 48 PA

2.29

MTL 14%Draw 20%CLT 65%

At lock: projected MTL 0.98–2.29 CLT · most likely 0–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CLT win

76%

77% (no-vig)

Total

3.26

3.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, -0.24 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

MTL 0.98–2.29 CLT · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CLT att -0.07 / def -0.06 · MTL att -0.43 / def -0.31 · model CLT 2.3–1.0 MTL
Home field
+0.3 goals to CLT
Record
CLT 13-8-10 · MTL 6-7-18

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Prince Owusu
goals 15
Prince Owusu
goalsleaders 15

Idan Toklomati
goals 14
Idan Toklomati
goalsleaders 14

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MTL	CLT
Goal Difference	-26	7
Total Goals	36	55
Assists	23	43
Goals Against	62	48

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

CF Montréal vs Charlotte prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 59% model probability. The model projected CF Montréal 1.0, Charlotte 2.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Charlotte 65%, CF Montréal 14%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day