D.C. United at Toronto FC
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At lock DC 1.13–1.85 TOR · 0.5 goals under 3.5 · 65% is the confidence saved at lock
T. Baribo · DC
ForwardD. Sallói · TOR
Forward
At lock: projected DC 1.13–1.85 TOR · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: +3 pts of win %, -0.52 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
DC 1.13–1.85 TOR · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TOR att -0.25 / def -0.20 · DC att -0.43 / def -0.28 · model TOR 1.9–1.1 DC
- Home field+0.3 goals to TOR
- RecordTOR 8-12-11 · DC 7-12-12
Season leaders
- Tai Baribogoals 16
- Tai Baribogoalsleaders 16
Dániel Sallóigoals 9- Dániel Sallóigoalsleaders 9
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DC | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -17 | -11 |
| Total Goals | 38 | 48 |
| Assists | 24 | 35 |
| Goals Against | 55 | 59 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
D.C. United vs Toronto prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 65% model probability. The model projected D.C. United 1.1, Toronto 1.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Toronto 53%, D.C. United 22%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day