Atlanta United FC at New York City FC
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At lock ATL 0.95–1.79 NYC · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
A. Miranchuk · ATL
MidfielderN. Fernández · NYC
Midfielder
At lock: projected ATL 0.95–1.79 NYC · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2
Model vs market
Gap: +1 pts of win %, +0.23 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
ATL 0.95–1.79 NYC · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NYC att -0.22 / def +0.07 · ATL att -0.34 / def -0.21 · model NYC 1.8–0.9 ATL
- Home field+0.3 goals to NYC
- RecordNYC 8-11-12 · ATL 8-6-17
Season leaders
- Alexey Miranchukgoals 6
- Alexey Miranchukgoalsleaders 6
- Nicolás Fernándezgoals 15
- Nicolás Fernándezgoalsleaders 15
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ATL | NYC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -15 | 2 |
| Total Goals | 39 | 45 |
| Assists | 25 | 30 |
| Goals Against | 54 | 43 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Atlanta vs NYCFC prediction · Oct 28, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Atlanta 0.9, NYCFC 1.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: NYCFC 56%, Atlanta 19%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day