Liga MXFri 8:00 PM CTEstadio Victoria

FC Juárez at Necaxa

Fri 8:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

65%

At lock JUA 1.28–2.09 NCX · 0.9 goals over 2.5

Players

Ó. Estupiñán · JUA
Forwards
J. Carranza · NCX
Forwards

FC Juárez

1-1-11

Form DLDLW · 8 PF · 32 PA

1.28

Projected

Necaxa

2-3-8

Form DLDLL · 15 PF · 26 PA

2.09

JUA 22%Draw 23%NCX 55%

At lock: projected JUA 1.28–2.09 NCX · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

NCX win

67%

72% (no-vig)

Total

3.36

2.5

Gap: -5 pts of win %, +0.86 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2030 vs old model 0.2266. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

JUA 1.28–2.09 NCX · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NCX att -0.20 / def -0.32 · JUA att -0.33 / def -0.43 · model NCX 2.1–1.3 JUA
Home field
+0.3 goals to NCX
Record
NCX 2-3-8 · JUA 1-1-11

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Óscar Estupiñán
goals 6
Óscar Estupiñán
goalsleaders 6

Julián Carranza
goals 7
Julián Carranza
goalsleaders 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	JUA	NCX
Goal Difference	-24	-11
Total Goals	8	15
Assists	5	10
Goals Against	32	26

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Juárez vs Necaxa prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 65% model probability. The model projected Juárez 1.3, Necaxa 2.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Necaxa 55%, Juárez 22%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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