Liga MXFri 10:00 PM CTEstadio Banorte

Atlético de San Luis at Atlante

Fri 10:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

58%

At lock ASL 1.27–1.75 ATL · 0.5 goals over 2.5

Players

R. Llorente · ASL
Midfield
L. Calzadilla · ATL
Midfield

Atlético de San Luis

4-4-5

Form DDLWW · 18 PF · 22 PA

1.27

Projected

Atlante

3-5-5

Form DLLWD · 14 PF · 19 PA

1.75

ASL 27%Draw 26%ATL 47%

At lock: projected ASL 1.27–1.75 ATL · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ATL win

60%

57% (no-vig)

Total

3.02

2.5

Gap: +3 pts of win %, +0.52 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2030 vs old model 0.2266. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

ASL 1.27–1.75 ATL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATL att -0.18 / def -0.12 · ASL att -0.13 / def -0.23 · model ATL 1.7–1.3 ASL
Home field
+0.3 goals to ATL
Record
ATL 3-5-5 · ASL 4-4-5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Rafa Llorente
goals 4
Rafa Llorente
goalsleaders 4

Luis Calzadilla
goals 3
Luis Calzadilla
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ASL	ATL
Goal Difference	-4	-5
Total Goals	18	14
Assists	10	10
Goals Against	22	19

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Atl. San Luis vs Atlante prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 58% model probability. The model projected Atl. San Luis 1.3, Atlante 1.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Atlante 47%, Atl. San Luis 27%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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