Carabao CupWed 2:45 PM CTStadium of Light

Brentford at Sunderland

TV · Paramount+

Wed 2:45 PM CT

Computer

Over 2.5

49%

BRE 1.64–0.97 SUN · 0.1 goals over 2.5

Players

C. Wilson · BRE
Forwards
J. Anthony · BRE
Forwards
D. Ouattara · BRE
Forwards
M. Damsgaard · BRE
Midfield
E. Balcombe · BRE
Goalkeeper
C. Talbi · SUN
Forwards

Brentford

— · computer pick

Form DDWWD

1.64

Projected

Sunderland

—

Form DLWLL

0.97

BRE 52%Draw 27%SUN 21%

Projected BRE 1.64–0.97 SUN · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SUN win

35%

36% (no-vig)

Total

2.62

2.5

Gap: -2 pts of win %, +0.12 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 171 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1950 vs old model 0.2438 vs closing line 0.1887. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from English leagues 1-4 plus cross-league offsets (ESPN results). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the DraftKings line (0.1887), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.1883 vs 0.1887, O/U Brier 0.2455 vs 0.2471. Small sample.

The model

How this number was built

BRE 1.64–0.97 SUN · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): SUN att +0.19 / def +0.58 · BRE att +0.73 / def +0.68 · model SUN 1.0–1.6 BRE
Home field
+0.3 goals to SUN

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Callum Wilson
goals Matches: 2, Goals: 2
Jaidon Anthony
AST Matches: 2, Assists: 3
Dango Ouattara
totalshots 5
Mikkel Damsgaard
Pass 133
Ellery Balcombe
SV 2

Chemsdine Talbi
goals Matches: 1, Goals: 1
Thomas Meunier
AST Matches: 1, Assists: 1
Jocelin Ta Bi
totalshots 3
Luke O'Nien
Pass 75
Melker Ellborg
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BRE	SUN
Goal Difference	6	1
Total Goals	8	1
Assists	7	1
Goals Against	2	0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Brentford vs Sunderland prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The model projects Brentford 1.6, Sunderland 1.0. Model win probability: Sunderland 21%, Brentford 52%, draw 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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