Carabao CupWed 3:00 PM CTAnfield

Chelsea at Liverpool

TV · Paramount+

Wed 3:00 PM CT

Computer

Under 4.5

34%

CHE 1.92–2.57 LIV · 0.0 goals under 4.5

Players

D. Welbeck · CHE
Forwards
M. Rogers · CHE
Midfield
C. Palmer · CHE
Midfield
V. Barco · CHE
Midfield
M. Penders · CHE
Goalkeeper
C. Gakpo · LIV
Forwards

Chelsea

—

Form WWLDW

1.92

Projected

Liverpool

— · computer pick

Form DWWLW

2.57

CHE 29%Draw 20%LIV 51%

Projected CHE 1.92–2.57 LIV · most likely 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LIV win

62%

46% (no-vig)

Total

4.49

3.5

Gap: +15 pts of win %, +0.99 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 171 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1950 vs old model 0.2438 vs closing line 0.1887. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from English leagues 1-4 plus cross-league offsets (ESPN results). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the DraftKings line (0.1887), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.1883 vs 0.1887, O/U Brier 0.2455 vs 0.2471. Small sample.

The model

How this number was built

CHE 1.92–2.57 LIV · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): LIV att +0.84 / def +0.58 · CHE att +0.89 / def +0.35 · model LIV 2.6–1.9 CHE
Home field
+0.3 goals to LIV

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Danny Welbeck
goals Matches: 2, Goals: 3
Morgan Rogers
AST Matches: 2, Assists: 3
Cole Palmer
totalshots 13
Valentín Barco
Pass 151
Mike Penders
SV 4

Cody Gakpo
goals Matches: 1, Goals: 1
Cody Gakpo
AST Matches: 1, Assists: 1
Alexis Mac Allister
totalshots 4
Ronald Araújo
Pass 50
Giorgi Mamardashvili
SV 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CHE	LIV
Goal Difference	5	2
Total Goals	8	3
Assists	5	2
Goals Against	3	1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The model projects Chelsea 1.9, Liverpool 2.6. Model win probability: Liverpool 51%, Chelsea 29%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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