Carabao CupWed 2:45 PM CTCraven Cottage

Crystal Palace at Fulham

TV · Paramount+

Wed 2:45 PM CT

Computer

Over 2.5

52%

CRY 1.30–1.46 FUL · 0.3 goals over 2.5

Players

J. Larsen · CRY
Forwards
Ó. Mingueza · CRY
Defenses
H. Ahanor · CRY
Defenses
W. Benítez · CRY
Goalkeeper
R. Muniz · FUL
Forwards
J. Andersen · FUL
Defenses

Crystal Palace

—

Form DLWDW

1.30

Projected

Fulham

— · computer pick

Form DLDWD

1.46

CRY 32%Draw 28%FUL 40%

Projected CRY 1.30–1.46 FUL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

FUL win

54%

65% (no-vig)

Total

2.76

2.5

Gap: -12 pts of win %, +0.26 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 171 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1950 vs old model 0.2438 vs closing line 0.1887. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from English leagues 1-4 plus cross-league offsets (ESPN results). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the DraftKings line (0.1887), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.1883 vs 0.1887, O/U Brier 0.2455 vs 0.2471. Small sample.

The model

How this number was built

CRY 1.30–1.46 FUL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): FUL att +0.36 / def +0.62 · CRY att +0.53 / def +0.44 · model FUL 1.5–1.3 CRY
Home field
+0.3 goals to FUL

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jørgen Strand Larsen
goals Matches: 1, Goals: 2
Óscar Mingueza
AST Matches: 1, Assists: 1
Jørgen Strand Larsen
totalshots 3
Honest Ahanor
Pass 45
Walter Benítez
SV 4

Rodrigo Muniz
goals Matches: 2, Goals: 2
Joachim Andersen
AST Matches: 2, Assists: 1
Rodrigo Muniz
totalshots 8
Joachim Andersen
Pass 191
Benjamin Lecomte
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CRY	FUL
Goal Difference	3	4
Total Goals	3	6
Assists	3	6
Goals Against	0	2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

C Palace vs Fulham prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The model projects C Palace 1.3, Fulham 1.5. Model win probability: Fulham 40%, C Palace 32%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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