Carabao CupWed 2:45 PM CTVitality Stadium

Aston Villa at AFC Bournemouth

TV · Padres.TV

Wed 2:45 PM CT

Computer

Under 3.5

38%

AVL 1.79–1.39 BOU · 0.3 goals under 3.5

Players

T. Abraham · AVL
Forwards
R. Barkley · AVL
Midfield
T. Harwood-Bellis · AVL
Defenses
Z. Suzuki · AVL
Goalkeeper
R. Christie · BOU
Midfield
B. Diakité · BOU
Defenses

Aston Villa

— · computer pick

Form DWWDW

1.79

Projected

AFC Bournemouth

—

Form DWLLW

1.39

AVL 46%Draw 25%BOU 29%

Projected AVL 1.79–1.39 BOU · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

BOU win

41%

58% (no-vig)

Total

3.18

2.5

Gap: -17 pts of win %, +0.68 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 171 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1950 vs old model 0.2438 vs closing line 0.1887. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from English leagues 1-4 plus cross-league offsets (ESPN results). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the DraftKings line (0.1887), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.1883 vs 0.1887, O/U Brier 0.2455 vs 0.2471. Small sample.

The model

How this number was built

AVL 1.79–1.39 BOU · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): BOU att +0.64 / def +0.66 · AVL att +0.90 / def +0.77 · model BOU 1.4–1.8 AVL
Home field
+0.3 goals to BOU

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tammy Abraham
goals Matches: 1, Goals: 2
Ross Barkley
AST Matches: 1, Assists: 1
Ross Barkley
totalshots 3
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Pass 65
Zion Suzuki
SV 2

Ryan Christie
goals Matches: 1, Goals: 3
Bafodé Diakité
AST Matches: 1, Assists: 1
Ryan Christie
totalshots 7
Lewis Cook
Pass 72
Michele Di Gregorio
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AVL	BOU
Goal Difference	2	4
Total Goals	3	4
Assists	3	4
Goals Against	1	0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Aston Villa vs Bournemouth prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The model projects Aston Villa 1.8, Bournemouth 1.4. Model win probability: Bournemouth 29%, Aston Villa 46%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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