Carabao CupTue 3:00 PM CTHighbury Stadium

Arsenal at Fleetwood Town

TV · Paramount+

Tue 3:00 PM CT

Computer

Over 3.5

53%

ARS 3.52–0.30 FLE · 0.3 goals over 3.5

Players

M. Dowman · ARS
Forwards
M. Zubimendi · ARS
Midfield
M. Lewis-Skelly · ARS
Defenses
K. Arrizabalaga · ARS
Goalkeeper
C. Evans · FLE
Forwards
M. Helm · FLE
Midfield

Arsenal

— · computer pick

Form DWWWL

3.52

Projected

Fleetwood Town

—

Form DWDWL

0.30

ARS 90%Draw 6%FLE 4%

Projected ARS 3.52–0.30 FLE · most likely 3–0

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

FLE win

5% (no-vig)

Total

3.81

3.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.31 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 171 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1950 vs old model 0.2438 vs closing line 0.1887. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from English leagues 1-4 plus cross-league offsets (ESPN results). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the DraftKings line (0.1887), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.1883 vs 0.1887, O/U Brier 0.2455 vs 0.2471. Small sample.

The model

How this number was built

ARS 3.52–0.30 FLE · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): FLE att -0.45 / def -0.21 · ARS att +0.70 / def +1.23 · model FLE 0.3–3.5 ARS
Home field
+0.3 goals to FLE

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Max Dowman
goals Matches: 1, Goals: 2
Martín Zubimendi
AST Matches: 1, Assists: 1
Max Dowman
totalshots 3
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Pass 74
Kepa Arrizabalaga
SV 1

Ched Evans
goals Matches: 3, Goals: 3
Mark Helm
AST Matches: 3, Assists: 2
Ched Evans
totalshots 5
Harrison Neal
Pass 104
Jay Lynch
SV 8

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ARS	FLE
Goal Difference	2	6
Total Goals	4	6
Assists	2	3
Goals Against	2	0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Arsenal vs Fleetwood Town prediction · Oct 27, 2026

The model projects Arsenal 3.5, Fleetwood Town 0.3. Model win probability: Fleetwood Town 4%, Arsenal 90%, draw 6%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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