Carabao CupWed 2:30 PM CTEtihad Stadium

Brighton & Hove Albion at Manchester City

TV · Paramount+

Wed 2:30 PM CT

Computer

Over 3.5

47%

BHA 1.57–1.94 MNC · 0.0 goals over 3.5

Players

P. Gross · BHA
Midfield
L. Vuskovic · BHA
Defenses
C. Kostoulas · BHA
Forwards
J. Steele · BHA
Goalkeeper
F. Samba · MNC
Midfield
R. Aït-Nouri · MNC
Defenses

Brighton & Hove Albion

—

Form DWWWW

1.57

Projected

Manchester City

— · computer pick

Form DWLWW

1.94

BHA 31%Draw 24%MNC 46%

Projected BHA 1.57–1.94 MNC · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

MNC win

58%

73% (no-vig)

Total

3.51

3.5

Gap: -15 pts of win %, +0.01 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 171 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1950 vs old model 0.2438 vs closing line 0.1887. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from English leagues 1-4 plus cross-league offsets (ESPN results). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the DraftKings line (0.1887), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.1883 vs 0.1887, O/U Brier 0.2455 vs 0.2471. Small sample.

The model

How this number was built

BHA 1.57–1.94 MNC · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): MNC att +1.08 / def +0.85 · BHA att +0.95 / def +0.87 · model MNC 1.9–1.6 BHA
Home field
+0.3 goals to MNC

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Pascal Gross
goals Matches: 1, Goals: 1
Luka Vuskovic
AST Matches: 1, Assists: 1
Charalambos Kostoulas
totalshots 4
Pascal Gross
Pass 58
Jason Steele
SV 2

Floyd Samba
goals Matches: 1, Goals: 2
Rayan Aït-Nouri
AST Matches: 1, Assists: 2
Floyd Samba
totalshots 4
Vitor Reis
Pass 147

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BHA	MNC
Goal Difference	1	5
Total Goals	3	5
Assists	2	5
Goals Against	2	0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Brighton vs Man City prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The model projects Brighton 1.6, Man City 1.9. Model win probability: Man City 46%, Brighton 31%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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