Carabao CupTue 2:45 PM CTValley Parade

Peterborough United at Bradford City

TV · Paramount+

Tue 2:45 PM CT

Computer

Under 2.5

56%

PET 0.87–1.58 BRD · 0.0 goals under 2.5

Players

H. Leonard · PET
Forwards
H. Mills · PET
Defenses
A. Bass · PET
Goalkeeper
W. Swan · BRD
Forwards
M. Gillesphey · BRD
Defenses
N. Powell · BRD
Midfield

Peterborough United

—

Form DDWWL

0.87

Projected

Bradford City

— · computer pick

Form DWDWD

1.58

PET 19%Draw 28%BRD 53%

Projected PET 0.87–1.58 BRD · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

BRD win

67%

73% (no-vig)

Total

2.45

2.5

Gap: -6 pts of win %, -0.05 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 171 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1950 vs old model 0.2438 vs closing line 0.1887. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from English leagues 1-4 plus cross-league offsets (ESPN results). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the DraftKings line (0.1887), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.1883 vs 0.1887, O/U Brier 0.2455 vs 0.2471. Small sample.

The model

How this number was built

PET 0.87–1.58 BRD · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): BRD att -0.33 / def +0.39 · PET att -0.10 / def -0.33 · model BRD 1.6–0.9 PET
Home field
+0.3 goals to BRD

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Harry Leonard
goals Matches: 3, Goals: 4
Harley Mills
AST Matches: 3, Assists: 2
Harry Leonard
totalshots 17
Harley Mills
Pass 99
Alex Bass
SV 18

Will Swan
goals Matches: 3, Goals: 2
Macaulay Gillesphey
AST Matches: 3, Assists: 1
Nick Powell
totalshots 10
Macaulay Gillesphey
Pass 87
Jon McCracken
SV 12

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PET	BRD
Goal Difference	5	4
Total Goals	9	5
Assists	4	4
Goals Against	4	1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Peterborough vs Bradford prediction · Oct 27, 2026

The model projects Peterborough 0.9, Bradford 1.6. Model win probability: Bradford 53%, Peterborough 19%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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