BundesligaFri 2:30 PM CTURSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Mainz at SV Elversberg

Fri 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

57%

At lock M05 1.57–1.77 ELV · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

P. Tietz · M05
Forward
M. Krattenmacher · ELV
Midfielder

Mainz

3-1-3

Form DWLWL · 16 PF · 13 PA

1.57

Projected

SV Elversberg

3-1-3

Form DWLDL · 12 PF · 15 PA

1.77

M05 33%Draw 25%ELV 42%

At lock: projected M05 1.57–1.77 ELV · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ELV win

54%

40% (no-vig)

Total

3.33

3.5

Gap: +14 pts of win %, -0.17 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,269 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2008 vs old model 0.2095 vs closing line 0.1958. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

M05 1.57–1.77 ELV · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ELV att -0.12 / def -0.13 · M05 att -0.09 / def -0.05 · model ELV 1.8–1.6 M05
Home field
+0.3 goals to ELV
Record
ELV 3-1-3 · M05 3-1-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Phillip Tietz
goals 5
Phillip Tietz
goalsleaders 5

Maurice Krattenmacher
goals 3
Maurice Krattenmacher
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	M05	ELV
Goal Difference	3	-3
Total Goals	16	12
Assists	13	8
Goals Against	13	15

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Mainz vs Elversberg prediction · Oct 30, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Mainz 1.6, Elversberg 1.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Elversberg 42%, Mainz 33%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Bundesliga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day