NationsSun 1:45 PM CTKing Baudouin Stadium
Italy at Belgium
@ItalyBelgium
Sun 1:45 PM CT
Lean · SpreadNot a strong play
ITA +0.5
-150 at lock54%
Model projects ITA 1.21 – 1.62 BEL · below the strong-play bar (edge -5.6%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop lean · R. Lukaku Over 3.5 shots · 50% · informational
+105
Italy
3-1-1
Form WWDWL
1.21
Projected
Belgium
3-0-2
Form WLWLW
1.62
ITA 29%Draw 25%BEL 47%
At lock: projected ITA 1.21–1.62 BEL
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Italy vs Belgium prediction · Nov 15, 2026
The model projects Italy 1.2, Belgium 1.6. Model win probability: Belgium 47%, Italy 29%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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