NFLSun 8:30 AM CTFC Bayern Munich Stadium

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

TV · Fox

PatriotsLions

Sun 8:30 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 49.5

-112 at lock51%

Model projects NE 23.65 – 26.30 DET · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

D. Maye · NE
QB
R. Stevenson · NE
RB
D. Douglas · NE
WR
J. Goff · DET
QB
J. Gibbs · DET
RB
A. St. Brown · DET
WR

Data-Driven Pick · J. Gibbs Under 98.5 rush yds

Strong play-110

New England Patriots

5-4 · L1 · computer pick

211 PF · 207 PA

23.65

Projected

Detroit Lions

6-2 · W4

222 PF · 189 PA

26.30

NE 42%DET 58%

At lock: projected NE 23.65–26.30 DET

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DET -2.0

DET -2.5

Total

50.5

49.5

Gap: -0.5 margin, +1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NE vs DET

The model

How this number was built

NE 23.65–26.30 DET · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
DET +2.1 vs NE +1.4 · pred margin +2.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) DET off +0.05, def stop -0.03 · NE off +0.07, def stop -0.04 · model DET 25.9–26.4 NE
Home field
+2.4 pts to DET
Record
DET 6-2 · NE 5-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward DET -2.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Drake Maye
Pass 178/272, 2282 YDS, 18 TD, 11 INT
Rhamondre Stevenson
Rush 102 CAR, 399 YDS, 2 TD
DeMario Douglas
Rec 31 REC, 434 YDS, 4 TD

Jared Goff
Pass 185/273, 2134 YDS, 15 TD, 2 INT
Jahmyr Gibbs
Rush 177 CAR, 847 YDS, 9 TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Rec 61 REC, 657 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NE	DET
Points Per Game	23.4	27.8
Total Yards	380.9	395.9
Yards Passing	261.0	268.1
Yards Rushing	119.9	127.8
Points Allowed Per Game	23.0	23.6
Yards Allowed	347.3	377.3
Pass Yards Allowed	250.7	283.1
Rush Yards Allowed	96.7	94.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

A. St. Brown Under 82.5 rec yds

-11056%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

A. St. Brown Under 7.5 rec
Receptions · DET
-110
56%
J. Gibbs Under 89.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · DET
-110
55%
J. Goff Under 274.5 pass+rush yds
Pass + rush yards · DET
-110
55%
D. Maye Under 263.5 pass yds
Passing yards · NE
-110
54%
J. Goff Under 271.5 pass yds
Passing yards · DET
-110
54%
J. Gibbs Under 20.5 car
Carries · DET
-110
53%
J. Gibbs Under 127.5 rush+rec yds
Rush + rec yards · DET
-110
53%
D. Maye Under 21.5 cmp
Completions · NE
-110
52%
D. Maye Under 1.5 pass TD
Passing TDs · NE
-110
52%
A.J. Brown Under 4.5 rec
Receptions · NE
-110
52%
S. LaPorta Under 4.5 rec
Receptions · DET
-110
52%

Patriots vs Lions prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The model projects Patriots 23.6, Lions 26.3. Model win probability: Lions 58%, Patriots 42%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day