NationsSun 8:00 AM CTSkonto Stadions

Armenia at Latvia

ArmeniaLatvia

Sun 8:00 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 2.5

-150 at lock58%

Model projects ARM 1.24 – 0.95 LVA · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

A. Gharibyan · ARM
Forward
D. Melniks · LVA
Midfielder

Projected prop · Artur Gharibyan (ARM) 0.47 goals · 0.40 goals/game this season, × 1.17 for the projected ARM score

Line not posted yet

Armenia

1-2-2

Form DDLLW · 5 PF · 6 PA

1.24

Projected

Latvia

0-1-4

Form LLLDL · 3 PF · 8 PA

0.95

ARM 43%Draw 29%LVA 28%

At lock: projected ARM 1.24–0.95 LVA · most likely 1–0

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

ARM 1.24–0.95 LVA · Medium confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
LVA -0.5 off · ARM -0.2 off, shrunk 56%
Home field
+0.2 goals to LVA
Record
LVA 0-1-4 · ARM 1-2-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward ARM +130 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Artur Gharibyan
goals 2
Artur Gharibyan
goalsleaders 2

Deniss Melniks
goals 1
Deniss Melniks
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ARM	LVA
Goal Difference	5	-11
Total Goals	11	3
Assists	5	3
Goals Against	6	14

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Armenia vs Latvia prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The model projects Armenia 1.2, Latvia 0.9. Model win probability: Latvia 28%, Armenia 43%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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