San Marino at Finland
@At lock SMR 0.57–3.49 FIN · FIN by 2.9 goals vs SMR +3.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
L. Lazzari · SMR
MidfielderL. Walta · FIN
Midfielder
Prop lean · B. Kallman anytime goal · 47% · informational
At lock: projected SMR 0.57–3.49 FIN · most likely 0–3
The model
How this number was built
SMR 0.57–3.49 FIN · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseFIN +0.3 off · SMR -0.7 off, shrunk 56%
- Home field+0.2 goals to FIN
- RecordFIN 2-1-2 · SMR 0-0-5
- Market priorBlended 68% toward FIN -5000 / total 4.5
Season leaders
- Lorenzo Lazzarigoals 1
- Lorenzo Lazzarigoalsleaders 1
- Leo Waltagoals 4
- Leo Waltagoalsleaders 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SMR | FIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -38 | 26 |
| Total Goals | 1 | 30 |
| Assists | 1 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 39 | 4 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- O. Antman anytime goalAnytime goal · FIN-11044%
- K. Kairinen anytime goalAnytime goal · FIN+45010%
San Marino vs Finland prediction · Nov 15, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SMR +3.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected San Marino 0.6, Finland 3.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Finland 86%, San Marino 6%, draw 8%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Nations picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day