EuropaFinal

2026-27 UEFA Europa League

2–0

DZGSUN

Final

Dinamo Zagreb

2-1-1

Form WLWDL · 5 PF · 4 PA

Final

Sunderland

2-1-1

Form WLLWD · 4 PF · 4 PA

DZG 11%Draw 19%SUN 70%

At lock: projected DZG 0.68–2.12 SUN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1126773987

Missed · off by 3

Most typical sim

DZG 1 – SUN 2

Final

DZG 2 – SUN 0

Winner: Sunderland (71%)
Spread: DZG +1.5 covers (54%)
Total: Over 2.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

DZG 0.68–2.12 SUN · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): SUN att +0.11 / def +0.55 · DZG att +0.29 / def +0.07 · model SUN 1.7–1.0 DZG
Home field
+0.3 goals to SUN
Record
SUN 2-1-1 · DZG 2-1-1

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
DZG	2	0	2
SUN	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 22'
Goal! Sunderland 0, Dinamo Zagreb 1. Luka Stojkovic (Dinamo Zagreb) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner following a corner.
GOAL1H 39'
Goal! Sunderland 0, Dinamo Zagreb 2. Dion Beljo (Dinamo Zagreb) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Luka Stojkovic with a through ball.

Game leaders

Mislav Orsic
totalshots 3
Josip Misic
Pass 25
Moris Valincic
defensiveinterventions 14
Dominik Kotarski
SV 7

Wilson Isidor
totalshots 4
Granit Xhaka
Pass 57
Kevin Danso
defensiveinterventions 13
Robin Roefs
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DZG	SUN
Fouls	17	9
Yellow Cards	2	3
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	3
Corner Kicks	3	5
Saves	7	1
Possession	37.8	62.2
SHOTS	9	17
ON GOAL	4	7
On Target %	0.4	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	194	382
Passes	280	455
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.8
Accurate Crosses	1	8
Crosses	11	27
Cross %	0.1	0.3
Long Balls	61	40
Accurate Long Balls	13	20
Long Balls %	0.2	0.5
Blocked Shots	1	4
Effective Tackles	10	14
Tackles	19	19
Tackle %	0.5	0.7
Interceptions	11	6
Effective Clearances	40	24
Clearances	40	24

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

56%

At lock DZG 0.68–2.12 SUN · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop W. Isidor · SUN
W. Isidor Over 3.5 shots
M. Orsic · DZG
Forward
J. Misic · DZG
Midfielder
M. Valincic · DZG
Defender
D. Kotarski · DZG
Goalkeeper
G. Xhaka · SUN
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · W. Isidor Over 3.5 shots

-120Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

DZG vs SUN pick result · Nov 5, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost.

More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day