Jagiellonia Bialystok at Sunderland
TV · Paramount+
@Model projects JAG 0.77 – 1.51 SUN · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Projected prop · Noah Sadiki (SUN) 0.25 goals · 0.25 goals/game this season
Projected JAG 0.77–1.51 SUN
Model vs market
Gap: -21 pts of win %, -0.22 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
Jagiellonia vs Sunderland prediction · Nov 26, 2026
The model projects Jagiellonia 0.8, Sunderland 1.5. Model win probability: Sunderland 54%, Jagiellonia 18%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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