Kasimpasa at Gaziantep FK
FT
2–0
At lock: projected KAS 1.40–1.34 GAZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:46 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1101371933
- Winner: Kasimpasa (39%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
KAS 1.40–1.34 GAZ · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GAZ att -0.28 / def -0.20 · KAS att -0.09 / def -0.01 · model GAZ 1.3–1.5 KAS
- Home field+0.3 goals to GAZ
- RecordGAZ 2-2-7 · KAS 5-5-1
- Market priorBlended 66% toward GAZ +135 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KAS | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| GAZ | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 3'
Haris Hajradinovic (Kasimpasa) Goal at 3'
- RUN1H 21'
Adrian Benedyczak (Kasimpasa) Penalty - Scored at 21'
Game leaders
- Adrian Benedyczaktotalshots 3
- Matei IliePass 35
- Matei Iliedefensiveinterventions 10
- Andreas GianniotisSV 4
- Drissa Camaratotalshots 4
- Abakar SyllaPass 78
- Myenty Abenadefensiveinterventions 5
- Mehmet Ataberk DadadenizSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KAS | GAZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 15 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 7 |
| Saves | 4 | 3 |
| Possession | 38.2 | 61.8 |
| SHOTS | 11 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 244 | 462 |
| Passes | 337 | 529 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 13 | 6 |
| Tackles | 20 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 22 | 13 |
At lock KAS 1.40–1.34 GAZ · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Benedyczak · KAS
ForwardM. Ilie · KAS
DefenderA. Gianniotis · KAS
GoalkeeperD. Camara · GAZ
MidfielderA. Sylla · GAZ
DefenderM. Abena · GAZ
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Kasimpasa vs Gaziantep pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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