Erzurum BB at Caykur Rizespor
FT
1–2
At lock: projected ERZ 0.99–1.45 CAY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1017483838
- Winner: Caykur Rizespor (46%)
- Spread: ERZ +0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ERZ 0.99–1.45 CAY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CAY att -0.07 / def -0.13 · ERZ att -0.19 / def -0.11 · model CAY 1.7–1.2 ERZ
- Home field+0.3 goals to CAY
- RecordCAY 4-2-5 · ERZ 4-2-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward CAY -115 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ERZ | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CAY | 1 | 1 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 31'
Ali Sowe (Caykur Rizespor) Goal at 31'
- GOAL1H 37'
Ibrahim Diabate (Erzurum BB) Goal at 37'
- GOAL2H 66'
Ali Sowe (Caykur Rizespor) Goal at 66'
Game leaders
- Ibrahim Diabatetotalshots 2
- Orhan OvacikliPass 45
- Amar Gerxhaliudefensiveinterventions 8
- Ertugrul TaskiranSV 4
- Ali Sowetotalshots 8
- Attila MocsiPass 80
- Siaka Bakayokodefensiveinterventions 5
- Zafer GörgenSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ERZ | CAY | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 14 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 8 |
| Saves | 4 | 3 |
| Possession | 37.7 | 62.3 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 24 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 289 | 535 |
| Passes | 367 | 614 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 0 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 13 | 11 |
| Tackles | 31 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 20 | 11 |
At lock ERZ 0.99–1.45 CAY · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp A. Kutucu anytime goal · CAY
A. Kutucu anytime goalI. Diabate · ERZ
ForwardO. Ovacikli · ERZ
DefenderA. Gerxhaliu · ERZ
DefenderE. Taskiran · ERZ
GoalkeeperA. Sowe · CAY
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · A. Kutucu anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Erzurum vs Caykur Rizespor pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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