Bologna at Cagliari
TV · Paramount+
At lock BOL 1.43–1.04 CAG · 0.03 goals under 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected BOL 1.43–1.04 CAG
Model vs market
Gap: -2 pts of win %, -0.09 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Bologna vs Cagliari prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Bologna 1.4, Cagliari 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Cagliari 26%, Bologna 45%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day