Werder Bremen at Mainz
TV · Fandango
At lock SVW 1.43–1.99 M05 · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected SVW 1.43–1.99 M05
Model vs market
Gap: -6 pts of win %, -0.24 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,269 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2008 vs old model 0.2095 vs closing line 0.1958. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Bremen vs Mainz prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Bremen 1.4, Mainz 2.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Mainz 50%, Bremen 27%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Bundesliga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day