Elche at Rayo Vallecano
TV · ESPN Deportes
At lock ELC 1.03–1.57 RAY · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected ELC 1.03–1.57 RAY
Model vs market
Gap: -8 pts of win %, +0.31 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Elche vs Rayo prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Elche 1.0, Rayo 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Rayo 49%, Elche 24%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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