EPLSat 9:00 AM CTEmirates Stadium

Everton at Arsenal

TV · USA Net

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

56%

At lock EVE 0.56–1.90 ARS · 0.04 goals under 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

T. Barry · EVE
Forward
B. Saka · ARS
Forward

Everton

2-4-1

Form DDWWD · 8 PF · 7 PA

0.56

Projected

Arsenal

6-0-1

Form DWWWL · 11 PF · 5 PA

1.90

EVE 9%Draw 22%ARS 69%

At lock: projected EVE 0.56–1.90 ARS · most likely 0–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ARS win

74%

84% (no-vig)

Total

2.35

2.5

Gap: -10 pts of win %, -0.15 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

EVE 0.56–1.90 ARS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ARS att +0.10 / def +0.46 · EVE att -0.23 / def +0.04 · model ARS 1.7–0.7 EVE
Home field
+0.3 goals to ARS
Record
ARS 6-0-1 · EVE 2-4-1
Market prior
Blended 67% toward ARS -215 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Thierno Barry
goals 3
Thierno Barry
goalsleaders 3

Bukayo Saka
goals 3
Bukayo Saka
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	EVE	ARS
Goal Difference	1	6
Total Goals	8	11
Assists	6	9
Goals Against	7	5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

K. Havertz anytime goal
Anytime goal · ARS
+145
41%
B. Saka anytime goal
Anytime goal · ARS
+190
34%
E. Eze anytime goal
Anytime goal · ARS
+275
27%
N. Madueke anytime goal
Anytime goal · ARS
+275
27%
M. Dowman anytime goal
Anytime goal · ARS
+290
26%
M. Merino anytime goal
Anytime goal · ARS
+360
22%
T. Barry anytime goal
Anytime goal · EVE
+400
20%
B. Guimarães anytime goal
Anytime goal · ARS
+425
19%
B. Graham anytime goal
Anytime goal · EVE
+475
17%
D. Rice anytime goal
Anytime goal · ARS
+700
13%
T. George anytime goal
Anytime goal · EVE
+700
13%
B. Johnson anytime goal
Anytime goal · EVE
+750
12%

Everton vs Arsenal prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Everton 0.6, Arsenal 1.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Arsenal 69%, Everton 9%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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