EPLSat 6:30 AM CTVilla Park

Manchester City at Aston Villa

TV · USA Net

Sat 6:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

57%

At lock MNC 1.94–1.39 AVL · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

E. Haaland · MNC
Forward
N. Jackson · AVL
Forward

Manchester City

7-0-0

Form DWLWW · 19 PF · 7 PA

1.94

Projected

Aston Villa

2-2-3

Form DWWDW · 7 PF · 11 PA

1.39

MNC 49%Draw 24%AVL 27%

At lock: projected MNC 1.94–1.39 AVL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

AVL win

36%

24% (no-vig)

Total

2.97

3.5

Gap: +11 pts of win %, -0.53 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

MNC 1.94–1.39 AVL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): AVL att -0.05 / def -0.04 · MNC att +0.27 / def +0.26 · model AVL 1.2–1.8 MNC
Home field
+0.3 goals to AVL
Record
AVL 2-2-3 · MNC 7-0-0
Market prior
Blended 67% toward MNC -165 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Erling Haaland
goals 8
Erling Haaland
goalsleaders 8

Nicolas Jackson
goals 2
Nicolas Jackson
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MNC	AVL
Goal Difference	12	-4
Total Goals	19	7
Assists	15	6
Goals Against	7	11

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

F. Samba anytime goal
Anytime goal · MNC
+140
42%
P. Foden anytime goal
Anytime goal · MNC
+205
33%
N. Jackson anytime goal
Anytime goal · AVL
+225
31%
I. Ndiaye anytime goal
Anytime goal · MNC
+235
30%
B. Madjo anytime goal
Anytime goal · AVL
+240
29%
T. Abraham anytime goal
Anytime goal · AVL
+245
29%
R. McAidoo anytime goal
Anytime goal · MNC
+265
27%
J. Manzambi anytime goal
Anytime goal · AVL
+330
23%
A. Garnacho anytime goal
Anytime goal · AVL
+450
18%
R. Barkley anytime goal
Anytime goal · AVL
+500
17%
I. Mbaye anytime goal
Anytime goal · AVL
+500
17%
J. McGinn anytime goal
Anytime goal · AVL
+550
15%

Man City vs Aston Villa prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Man City 1.9, Aston Villa 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Aston Villa 27%, Man City 49%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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