AC Milan at Udinese
TV · Paramount+
At lock MIL 1.54–1.05 UDI · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected MIL 1.54–1.05 UDI
Model vs market
Gap: +9 pts of win %, +0.26 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Milan vs Udinese prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Milan 1.5, Udinese 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Udinese 25%, Milan 47%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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