Bayer Leverkusen at TSG Hoffenheim
TV · Fandango
At lock B04 2.03–1.60 TSG · 0.1 goals over 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected B04 2.03–1.60 TSG
Model vs market
Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.40 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,269 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2008 vs old model 0.2095 vs closing line 0.1958. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Leverkusen 2.0, Hoffenheim 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Hoffenheim 30%, Leverkusen 47%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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