Lille at AS Monaco
TV · beIn Sports
Now LILL 1.09–1.46 MON · pick locked earlier at Under 2.5; model has since moved
Projected LILL 1.09–1.46 MON
Model vs market
Gap: -14 pts of win %, +0.16 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Lille vs Monaco prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Lille 1.1, Monaco 1.5. Model win probability: Monaco 45%, Lille 27%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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