AFC Bournemouth at Manchester United
TV · Peacock
At lock BOU 1.10–1.59 MAN · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected BOU 1.10–1.59 MAN
Model vs market
Gap: +3 pts of win %, +0.57 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Bournemouth vs Man United prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Bournemouth 1.1, Man United 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Man United 47%, Bournemouth 25%, draw 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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