Saudi ProSat 10:05 AM CTAl-Hazm Club Stadium

Al Ettifaq at Al Kholood

Sat 10:05 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

54%

At lock ETT 1.52–1.10 KHO · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

M. Dembélé · ETT
Forward
J. Domingues · KHO
Forward

Al Ettifaq

4-3-3

Form DWDDD · 14 PF · 16 PA

1.52

Projected

Al Kholood

3-3-3

Form DLLWD · 14 PF · 18 PA

1.10

ETT 30%Draw 29%KHO 41%

At lock: projected ETT 1.52–1.10 KHO · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

KHO win

43%

50% (no-vig)

Total

2.85

2.5

Gap: -7 pts of win %, +0.35 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

ETT 1.52–1.10 KHO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): KHO att -0.21 / def -0.24 · ETT att -0.12 / def -0.03 · model KHO 1.3–1.6 ETT
Home field
+0.3 goals to KHO
Record
KHO 3-3-3 · ETT 4-3-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward KHO +155 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Moussa Dembélé
goals 3
Moussa Dembélé
goalsleaders 3

Julien Domingues
goals 4
Julien Domingues
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ETT	KHO
Goal Difference	-2	-4
Total Goals	14	14
Assists	9	12
Goals Against	16	18

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

J. Larsson anytime goal
Anytime goal · ETT
+240
29%
O. Duda anytime goal
Anytime goal · ETT
+700
13%
S. Pinas anytime goal
Anytime goal · KHO
+1100
8%
J. Hendry anytime goal
Anytime goal · ETT
+1900
6%

Al Ettifaq vs Al Kholood prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Al Ettifaq 1.5, Al Kholood 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Al Kholood 41%, Al Ettifaq 30%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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