Saudi ProSat 1:00 PM CTAl-Shabab Club Stadium

Al Taawoun at Al Riyadh

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

56%

At lock TAA 1.45–1.01 RIY · 0.04 goals under 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Hamdallah · TAA
Forward
T. Okou · RIY
Forward

Al Taawoun

0-4-6

Form DDWLD · 4 PF · 17 PA

1.45

Projected

Al Riyadh

2-3-4

Form DDWDL · 9 PF · 18 PA

1.01

TAA 46%Draw 29%RIY 25%

At lock: projected TAA 1.45–1.01 RIY · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

RIY win

42%

45% (no-vig)

Total

2.36

2.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, -0.14 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

TAA 1.45–1.01 RIY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RIY att -0.37 / def -0.20 · TAA att -0.23 / def +0.03 · model RIY 1.0–1.3 TAA
Home field
+0.3 goals to RIY
Record
RIY 2-3-4 · TAA 0-4-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward TAA +135 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Abderrazak Hamdallah
goals 3
Abderrazak Hamdallah
goalsleaders 3

Teddy Okou
goals 3
Teddy Okou
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TAA	RIY
Goal Difference	-13	-9
Total Goals	4	9
Assists	2	6
Goals Against	17	18

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Trézéguet anytime goal
Anytime goal · RIY
+205
33%
P. Guiagon anytime goal
Anytime goal · TAA
+295
25%
N. Bajrami anytime goal
Anytime goal · TAA
+425
19%
O. Dorley anytime goal
Anytime goal · TAA
+700
13%
Z. Belaïd anytime goal
Anytime goal · TAA
+1500
6%

Al Taawoun vs Al Riyadh prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Al Taawoun 1.4, Al Riyadh 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Al Riyadh 25%, Al Taawoun 46%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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