PortugalSat 12:00 PM CTComplexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Arouca at Alverca

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

51%

At lock FCA 1.10–1.47 ALV · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

Barbero · FCA
Forward
V. Semedo · ALV
Forward

Arouca

4-2-2

Form DWDLD · 11 PF · 7 PA

1.10

Projected

Alverca

3-2-3

Form DWWWL · 13 PF · 12 PA

1.47

FCA 27%Draw 29%ALV 44%

At lock: projected FCA 1.10–1.47 ALV · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ALV win

52%

62% (no-vig)

Total

2.72

2.5

Gap: -10 pts of win %, +0.22 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 518 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1838 vs old model 0.2321. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

FCA 1.10–1.47 ALV · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ALV att -0.14 / def -0.08 · FCA att -0.05 / def -0.07 · model ALV 1.4–1.3 FCA
Home field
+0.3 goals to ALV
Record
ALV 3-2-3 · FCA 4-2-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ALV +115 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Barbero
goals 5
Barbero
goalsleaders 5

Vivaldo Semedo
goals 3
Vivaldo Semedo
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FCA	ALV
Goal Difference	4	1
Total Goals	11	13
Assists	8	10
Goals Against	7	12

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Camara anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALV
+155
39%
M. Climent anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCA
+900
10%
L. Shahar anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCA
+2200
6%

Arouca vs Alverca prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Arouca 1.1, Alverca 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Alverca 44%, Arouca 27%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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