PortugalSat 9:30 AM CTEstádio José Gomes

Casa Pia at Estrela

Sat 9:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

55%

At lock CPAC 0.99–1.48 EST · 0.03 goals under 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

S. Clua · CPAC
Midfielder
A. Marcus · EST
Forward

Casa Pia

1-1-6

Form DLWLD · 3 PF · 17 PA

0.99

Projected

Estrela

2-4-2

Form DLLDW · 14 PF · 15 PA

1.48

CPAC 24%Draw 29%EST 47%

At lock: projected CPAC 0.99–1.48 EST · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

EST win

61%

73% (no-vig)

Total

2.42

2.5

Gap: -12 pts of win %, -0.08 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 518 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1838 vs old model 0.2321. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

CPAC 0.99–1.48 EST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): EST att -0.26 / def -0.20 · CPAC att -0.46 / def -0.20 · model EST 1.4–1.0 CPAC
Home field
+0.3 goals to EST
Record
EST 2-4-2 · CPAC 1-1-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward EST -135 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Silvi Clua
goals 1
Silvi Clua
goalsleaders 1

Abraham Marcus
goals 4
Abraham Marcus
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CPAC	EST
Goal Difference	-14	-1
Total Goals	3	14
Assists	2	11
Goals Against	17	15

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

E. Maurin anytime goal
Anytime goal · CPAC
+400
20%
A. Chernev anytime goal
Anytime goal · EST
+1700
6%

Casa Pia vs Estrela prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Casa Pia 1.0, Estrela 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Estrela 47%, Casa Pia 24%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day