PortugalSat 2:30 PM CTEstádio Cidade de Barcelos

FC Porto at Gil Vicente

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

57%

At lock FCP 1.84–0.56 GVFC · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

G. Veiga · FCP
Midfielder
H. Hernández · GVFC
Forward

FC Porto

8-0-0

Form DLWWW · 20 PF · 4 PA

1.84

Projected

Gil Vicente

4-2-2

Form WWWDL · 8 PF · 6 PA

0.56

FCP 67%Draw 23%GVFC 10%

At lock: projected FCP 1.84–0.56 GVFC · most likely 1–0

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

GVFC win

30%

17% (no-vig)

Total

2.22

2.5

Gap: +12 pts of win %, -0.28 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 518 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1838 vs old model 0.2321. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

FCP 1.84–0.56 GVFC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GVFC att -0.22 / def +0.12 · FCP att +0.30 / def +0.56 · model GVFC 0.7–1.5 FCP
Home field
+0.3 goals to GVFC
Record
GVFC 4-2-2 · FCP 8-0-0
Market prior
Blended 66% toward FCP -220 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gabri Veiga
goals 4
Gabri Veiga
goalsleaders 4

Hector Hernández
goals 3
Hector Hernández
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FCP	GVFC
Goal Difference	16	2
Total Goals	20	8
Assists	14	4
Goals Against	4	6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

S. Gimenez anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+150
40%
B. Sainz anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+240
29%
O. Pietuszewski anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+330
23%
S. Fofana anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+500
17%
A. Varela anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+500
17%
V. Froholdt anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+500
17%
H. In-Beom anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+650
13%
P. Rosario anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+700
13%
J. Bednarek anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+1100
8%
Z. Sanusi anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+1100
8%
J. Kiwior anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+1300
7%
A. Costa anytime goal
Anytime goal · FCP
+1300
7%

FC Porto vs Gil Vicente prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected FC Porto 1.8, Gil Vicente 0.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Gil Vicente 10%, FC Porto 67%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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